{"id":128461,"date":"2026-03-25T16:54:04","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T19:54:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.blogdopaulonunes.com\/v5\/?p=128461"},"modified":"2026-03-25T16:54:04","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T19:54:04","slug":"lula-lidera-em-todos-os-cenarios-de-primeiro-turno-flavio-cresce-e-venceria-no-segundo-diz-pesquisa-atlas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blogdopaulonunes.com\/v5\/index.php\/2026\/03\/25\/lula-lidera-em-todos-os-cenarios-de-primeiro-turno-flavio-cresce-e-venceria-no-segundo-diz-pesquisa-atlas\/","title":{"rendered":"Lula lidera em todos os cen\u00e1rios de primeiro turno; Fl\u00e1vio cresce e venceria no segundo, diz pesquisa Atlas"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Novo levantamento aponta disputa acirrada entre Lula e Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro; confira os cen\u00e1rios simulados<\/p>\n<div class=\"info\">\n<div class=\"info-author\">\n<div class=\"text\"><span class=\"name\"><a title=\"Ver todos os posts de Ivan Longo\" href=\"https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/autor\/ivan\/\">Por: Ivan Longo<\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<figure class=\"s-heading__img\"><picture class=\"attachment-medium_large size-medium_large\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Untitled-38-768x432.jpeg.webp 768w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Untitled-38-300x169.jpeg.webp 300w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Untitled-38-1024x576.jpeg.webp 1024w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Untitled-38-1536x864.jpeg.webp 1536w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Untitled-38-400x225.jpeg.webp 400w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Untitled-38.jpeg.webp 1920w\" type=\"image\/webp\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Untitled-38-768x432.jpeg\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Untitled-38-768x432.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Untitled-38-300x169.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Untitled-38-1024x576.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Untitled-38-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Untitled-38-400x225.jpeg 400w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Untitled-38.jpeg 1920w\" alt=\"Untitled (38)\" width=\"768\" height=\"432\" \/><\/picture><figcaption>&#8211; Lula e Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro (Fotos: Ricardo Stuckert PR \/ Waldemir Barreto Ag\u00eancia Senado)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<section id=\"dsoaudio\" class=\"s-content wrapper\">\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"244\" data-end=\"638\">Opresidente\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/tags\/lula\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva<\/a>\u00a0<strong>aparece na lideran\u00e7a em todos os cen\u00e1rios de primeiro turno<\/strong>\u00a0para a elei\u00e7\u00e3o presidencial de 2026, segundo pesquisa AtlasIntel\/Bloomberg divulgada nesta ter\u00e7a-feira (24). Apesar da vantagem consistente, o levantamento indica um cen\u00e1rio mais competitivo no segundo turno, especialmente contra o senador\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/tags\/flavio-bolsonaro\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ)<\/a>, principal nome da oposi\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"640\" data-end=\"992\">De acordo com o estudo, Lula mant\u00e9m dianteira confort\u00e1vel no primeiro turno em diferentes simula\u00e7\u00f5es. No principal cen\u00e1rio testado, o presidente registra 45,9% das inten\u00e7\u00f5es de voto, contra 40,1% de Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro, que aparece em segundo lugar. Outros nomes, como governadores e ex-ministros, ficam bem atr\u00e1s, sem amea\u00e7ar a polariza\u00e7\u00e3o entre os dois.<\/p>\n<h3 data-section-id=\"1bxbr1l\" data-start=\"994\" data-end=\"1034\">Cen\u00e1rio de 1\u00ba turno<\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"1036\" data-end=\"1368\">\n<li data-section-id=\"1ovh6rm\" data-start=\"1036\" data-end=\"1070\"><strong data-start=\"1038\" data-end=\"1046\">Lula<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 45,9% (<strong data-start=\"1056\" data-end=\"1067\">+1 p.p.<\/strong>)<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"83fc0c\" data-start=\"1071\" data-end=\"1117\"><strong data-start=\"1073\" data-end=\"1093\">Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 40,1% (<strong data-start=\"1103\" data-end=\"1114\">+2 p.p.<\/strong>)<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"rsj0um\" data-start=\"1118\" data-end=\"1160\"><strong data-start=\"1120\" data-end=\"1136\">Renan Santos<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 4,4% (<strong data-start=\"1145\" data-end=\"1157\">\u2248 0 p.p.<\/strong>)<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"83jcjc\" data-start=\"1161\" data-end=\"1204\"><strong data-start=\"1163\" data-end=\"1181\">Ronaldo Caiado<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 3,7% (<strong data-start=\"1190\" data-end=\"1201\">-1 p.p.<\/strong>)<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"1kz7abh\" data-start=\"1205\" data-end=\"1245\"><strong data-start=\"1207\" data-end=\"1221\">Romeu Zema<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 3,1% (<strong data-start=\"1230\" data-end=\"1242\">\u2248 0 p.p.<\/strong>)<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"9cv2vz\" data-start=\"1246\" data-end=\"1287\"><strong data-start=\"1248\" data-end=\"1263\">Aldo Rebelo<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 0,6% (<strong data-start=\"1272\" data-end=\"1284\">\u2248 0 p.p.<\/strong>)<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"kcs740\" data-start=\"1288\" data-end=\"1329\"><strong data-start=\"1290\" data-end=\"1305\">Branco\/Nulo<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 1,9% (<strong data-start=\"1314\" data-end=\"1326\">\u2248 0 p.p.<\/strong>)<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"kxunco\" data-start=\"1330\" data-end=\"1368\"><strong data-start=\"1332\" data-end=\"1344\">N\u00e3o sabe<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 0,3% (<strong data-start=\"1353\" data-end=\"1365\">\u2248 0 p.p.<\/strong>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<picture class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-324497\" title=\"Lula lidera em todos os cen\u00e1rios de primeiro turno; Fl\u00e1vio cresce e venceria no segundo, diz pesquisa Atlas 1\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-09.59.40.png.webp 1024w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-09.59.40-300x169.png.webp 300w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-09.59.40-768x432.png.webp 768w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-09.59.40-400x225.png.webp 400w\" type=\"image\/webp\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-09.59.40.png\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-09.59.40.png 1024w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-09.59.40-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-09.59.40-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-09.59.40-400x225.png 400w\" alt=\"Screenshot 2026 03 25 at 09.59.40\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" \/><\/picture>\n<div id=\"entreparrafos3\" data-google-query-id=\"CPqUt67ou5MDFTQIHgAdFiAjzQ\">\n<div id=\"google_ads_iframe_\/96014957\/entreparrafos3_0__container__\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1370\" data-end=\"1729\">A s\u00e9rie hist\u00f3rica do levantamento mostra estabilidade de Lula na lideran\u00e7a ao longo dos \u00faltimos meses, oscilando dentro da margem, enquanto Fl\u00e1vio apresenta crescimento cont\u00ednuo \u2014 saindo da casa dos 20% e se aproximando dos 40% mais recentemente. O avan\u00e7o do senador, no entanto, ainda n\u00e3o foi suficiente para ultrapassar o atual presidente no primeiro turno.<\/p>\n<div id=\"teads-container\"><\/div>\n<p data-start=\"1370\" data-end=\"1729\"><picture class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-324498\" title=\"Lula lidera em todos os cen\u00e1rios de primeiro turno; Fl\u00e1vio cresce e venceria no segundo, diz pesquisa Atlas 2\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-10.00.34-1024x607.png.webp 1024w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-10.00.34-300x178.png.webp 300w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-10.00.34-768x455.png.webp 768w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-10.00.34-400x237.png.webp 400w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-10.00.34.png.webp 1034w\" type=\"image\/webp\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-10.00.34-1024x607.png\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-10.00.34-1024x607.png 1024w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-10.00.34-300x178.png 300w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-10.00.34-768x455.png 768w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-10.00.34-400x237.png 400w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-10.00.34.png 1034w\" alt=\"Screenshot 2026 03 25 at 10.00.34\" width=\"1024\" height=\"607\" \/><\/picture><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1731\" data-end=\"2049\"><strong>LEIA TAMB\u00c9M:\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/politica\/aprovacao-do-governo-lula-o-que-diz-a-pesquisa-atlas-sobre-a-popularidade-do-governo\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Aprova\u00e7\u00e3o do governo Lula: o que diz a pesquisa Atlas sobre a popularidade da gest\u00e3o<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/opiniao\/pesquisa-atlas-revela-potencial-da-globo-com-power-points-e-emite-alerta-a-lula-sobre-a-economia\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pesquisa Atlas revela potencial da Globo com \u201cPower Points\u201d e emite alerta a Lula sobre a economia<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1731\" data-end=\"2049\">Em cen\u00e1rios alternativos de primeiro turno, Lula mant\u00e9m desempenho semelhante, variando entre 45% e 46%, enquanto Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro oscila na faixa dos 40% a 42%, consolidando-se como principal advers\u00e1rio, mas ainda atr\u00e1s do petista. A fragmenta\u00e7\u00e3o dos demais candidatos contribui para ampliar a vantagem do presidente.<\/p>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"npm3l7\" data-start=\"2051\" data-end=\"2107\">Segundo turno: disputa apertada e vantagem de Fl\u00e1vio<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2395\" data-end=\"2701\">Se no primeiro turno Lula lidera, o cen\u00e1rio se inverte na simula\u00e7\u00e3o de segundo turno contra Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro. Segundo a pesquisa AtlasIntel\/Bloomberg, o senador aparece com\u00a0<strong data-start=\"662\" data-end=\"671\">47,6%<\/strong>, ante\u00a0<strong data-start=\"678\" data-end=\"687\">46,6%<\/strong>\u00a0de Lula, enquanto\u00a0<strong data-start=\"706\" data-end=\"714\">5,8%<\/strong>\u00a0dizem votar em branco, nulo ou afirmam n\u00e3o saber.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2395\" data-end=\"2701\">A s\u00e9rie hist\u00f3rica mostra uma corrida mais dif\u00edcil para o presidente: em dezembro de 2025, Lula tinha\u00a0<strong data-start=\"866\" data-end=\"873\">53%<\/strong>, contra\u00a0<strong data-start=\"882\" data-end=\"889\">41%<\/strong>\u00a0de Fl\u00e1vio; em janeiro, a diferen\u00e7a caiu para\u00a0<strong data-start=\"935\" data-end=\"952\">49,2% a 44,9%<\/strong>; em fevereiro, houve empate t\u00e9cnico, com\u00a0<strong data-start=\"994\" data-end=\"1013\">46,2% para Lula<\/strong>\u00a0e\u00a0<strong data-start=\"1016\" data-end=\"1037\">46,3% para Fl\u00e1vio<\/strong>; agora, em mar\u00e7o, o filho do ex-presidente aparece numericamente \u00e0 frente.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2395\" data-end=\"2701\"><picture class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-324499\" title=\"Lula lidera em todos os cen\u00e1rios de primeiro turno; Fl\u00e1vio cresce e venceria no segundo, diz pesquisa Atlas 3\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-10.02.28-1024x528.png.webp 1024w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-10.02.28-300x155.png.webp 300w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-10.02.28-768x396.png.webp 768w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-10.02.28-400x206.png.webp 400w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-10.02.28.png.webp 1206w\" type=\"image\/webp\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-10.02.28-1024x528.png\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-10.02.28-1024x528.png 1024w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-10.02.28-300x155.png 300w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-10.02.28-768x396.png 768w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-10.02.28-400x206.png 400w, https:\/\/revistaforum.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-25-at-10.02.28.png 1206w\" alt=\"Screenshot 2026 03 25 at 10.02.28\" width=\"1024\" height=\"528\" \/><\/picture><\/p>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"10s0z7z\" data-start=\"2703\" data-end=\"2748\">Reedi\u00e7\u00e3o de 2022<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2750\" data-end=\"3060\">Na simula\u00e7\u00e3o de repeti\u00e7\u00e3o da elei\u00e7\u00e3o de 2022, com Jair Bolsonaro ainda como candidato, o ex-presidente aparece numericamente \u00e0 frente de Lula, com 44,8% contra 42,7%. No entanto, como Bolsonaro est\u00e1 ineleg\u00edvel e preso, esse cen\u00e1rio \u00e9 tratado como hipot\u00e9tico e com menor relev\u00e2ncia pr\u00e1tica para a disputa atual.<\/p>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"sy5q8s\" data-start=\"3062\" data-end=\"3086\">Avalia\u00e7\u00e3o do governo<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3088\" data-end=\"3283\">Na parte final do levantamento, a pesquisa mostra que o governo Lula enfrenta um cen\u00e1rio de avalia\u00e7\u00e3o mais desafiador. A desaprova\u00e7\u00e3o do presidente chega a 53,5%, enquanto a aprova\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 de 45,9%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3285\" data-end=\"3524\">A avalia\u00e7\u00e3o do governo segue tend\u00eancia semelhante: 49,8% consideram a gest\u00e3o ruim ou p\u00e9ssima, contra 40,6% que a classificam como \u00f3tima ou boa. Apesar disso, Lula mant\u00e9m resili\u00eancia eleitoral, liderando todos os cen\u00e1rios de primeiro turno.<\/p>\n<h3 data-section-id=\"2k3vua\" data-start=\"3526\" data-end=\"3541\">Metodologia<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3543\" data-end=\"3712\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">A pesquisa foi realizada entre 18 e 23 de mar\u00e7o de 2026, com 5.028 respondentes em todo o pa\u00eds. A margem de erro \u00e9 de um ponto percentual, com n\u00edvel de confian\u00e7a de 95%.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Novo levantamento aponta disputa acirrada entre Lula e Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro; confira os cen\u00e1rios simulados Por: Ivan Longo &#8211; Lula e Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro (Fotos: Ricardo Stuckert PR \/ Waldemir Barreto Ag\u00eancia Senado) Opresidente\u00a0Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva\u00a0aparece na lideran\u00e7a em todos os cen\u00e1rios de primeiro turno\u00a0para a elei\u00e7\u00e3o presidencial de 2026, segundo pesquisa AtlasIntel\/Bloomberg divulgada nesta [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":127415,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7196,105],"tags":[3742,7598,138],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blogdopaulonunes.com\/v5\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/128461"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blogdopaulonunes.com\/v5\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blogdopaulonunes.com\/v5\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blogdopaulonunes.com\/v5\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blogdopaulonunes.com\/v5\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=128461"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.blogdopaulonunes.com\/v5\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/128461\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":128462,"href":"https:\/\/www.blogdopaulonunes.com\/v5\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/128461\/revisions\/128462"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blogdopaulonunes.com\/v5\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/127415"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blogdopaulonunes.com\/v5\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=128461"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blogdopaulonunes.com\/v5\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=128461"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blogdopaulonunes.com\/v5\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=128461"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}